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Effective Estimation (UMTPM009)   Register Online
 
Overview

Bad estimates are a leading source of project failure: if you promise to do a five-month job in three-months --- and it really is a five-month job -- schedule slippages and cost overruns are hardwired into the project before any work has begun. Clearly, individuals and organizations intent on reducing the levels of project failure they encounter need to focus attention on improving the way they develop estimates of costs, schedules, and resource requirements.

This course balances the "soft" and "hard" dimensions of estimation. On the soft side, it emphasizes that factors, such as the optimism of the sales staff, the naivete of the technical team, and political pressures to win a job at any cost, contribute mightily to understating cost, schedule, and resource realities. On the hard side, it describes a series of techniques -- including trend extrapolation and Monte Carlo simulation -- that enable capable estimators to do a better job of forecasting project requirements.

Effective Estimation was developed by UMT Dean Dr. J. Davidson Frame and is based on the course he has taught as part of the PMI Project World Seminar series.

Note: Students who take Effective Estimation should not take PM251. Planning and Control

Objectives

To provide participants with insights and skills that will enable them to develop better capabilities to create effective estimates.
What You Will Learn

  • How problems with effective estimation are largely inevitable
  • How to collect and archive data for better estimates
  • Different issues involved in estimating costs, schedules, and resource requirements
  • Techniques to improve the accuracy of estimates

PMBOK® Guide Process Areas

  • Initiating
  • Planning
  • Executing
  • Monitoring and Controlling

PMBOK® Guide Knowledge Areas

  • Project Human Resource Management
  • Project Time Management
  • Project Scope Management
  • Project Cost Management
  • Project Risk Management
  • Project Procurement Management

Instruction

  • Course modules containing cutting-edge knowledge developed by renowned experts in project management
  • Course Textbook: Innumeracy, a book by John Allen Paulos
  • "Think and Review" section that helps you review key points of the modules
  • Answers to the "Think and Review" section
  • A final exam which contains multiple choice and true/false questions
  • Certificate of Completion.

Topics Covered

  • Estimating a current state of affairs vs. forecasting the future
  • Different types of measures: nominal, ordinal, interval
  • Estimating work performance
  • Estimating costs, schedules, resource requirements
  • The psychological dimension of estimation
  • Top-down (e.g., parametric) vs. bottom-up estimates
  • The differing roles of conceptual, preliminary, and definitive estimates
  • Forecasting techniques: scenario-building, gap analysis, trend extrapolation, Delphi
  • Estimation and risk
  • Life-cycle cost estimating
  • Developing a database to make better estimates

 
 
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